BOUNCED Gunboat Journal: 190220 min read

Winter 1902 Plan

With two builds, I have to decide on a fleet or army build in Trieste. I’ve read that most people think fleets are useless to Austria. I feel like fleets are helpful for Austria in the event of an Italian stab (or to stab Italy). My general inclination as Austria is to always build a fleet in Winter 1902. The risk is that it alienates Italy. When faced with an obvious Russia-Turkey alliance, I normally would build an army. The Turkish player’s attempt at Rumania leads to me to want to build a fleet. I hesitate because of the “hold” orders entered by the Italian player. His movements didn’t announce to the world that Austria-Italy is an item, so a fleet build may not be received very well.

On the flip side, if France builds a fleet in Marseilles, my fleet build won’t be as menacing. Right now, I believe France is an aggressive/offensive player. An army in Marseilles would be used for attacking Germany. A fleet build in either Brest or Marseilles could be intended for the Mediterranean. However, a fleet build in Brest could alienate France’s new BFF, England (who may or may not actually be France’s BFF). If France is very aggressive, a move into the Mediterranean may be paired with an attack on Germany. Either way, I have doubts that France will ignore England’s overtures and build a fleet in Brest.

I’m going to gamble that a fleet build won’t cause too much consternation for Italy: Build A Bud and Build F Tri are my orders. Here are some loose predictions/thoughts on the other powers:

• I have no predictions for Russia or Turkey as there isn’t enough to get a feel for their intentions.
• Italy is likely to build a fleet in Naples to go along with the other standard movements made. I believe he noticed that France got three builds and knows he needs to be prepared to defend. Concurrently, a fleet in Naples sets up a Lepanto and AI alliance (or fake Lepanto to attack me).
• I believe Germany builds a fleet in Kiel to move to Heligoland Bight and an army in Berlin. I believe Germany goes into defensive mode (maybe letting Russia into Sweden).
• My prediction is that France builds a fleet in Marseilles and armies elsewhere. I wouldn’t be surprised by two fleet builds (aggressive to a fault) or a fleet build in Brest. A fleet in Brest would be an early English stab or hiding the plan to go into the Mediterranean.
• I think England builds a fleet in Edinburgh to continue to continue to show an alliance with France. A fleet build in London wouldn’t be out of the question (nor would an army build).

Winter 1902 Builds

I was wrong about a few things but not very surprised.

• Turkey’s fleet build shows an awareness of a possible Lepanto (and maybe worry over my Greek fleet).
• Russia’s army build in Moscow indicates a defensive posture with flexibility in that it could go north instead of south. At the very least, it hides intent.
• Italy’s fleet build was as expected.
• Germany built two armies, which shows a focus on defending against France more than England. I did not consider this possibility from Germany. However, it does make sense as a defensive build (which is generally what I was expecting).
• France built a fleet in Brest, providing flexibility on its destination (north or south).
• England built an army in London, which I take to be a forward-thinking build. Also, it conceals the destination since it can be convoyed by either fleet. This build is in line with the movements in Spring 1901 (which concealed a support of France into Belgium).

Spring 1902 Plan

There are two main risks to me this year:

1. Italy attacks, not happy with my fleet build.
2. Russia/Turkey team up and attack.

I don’t believe either is very likely to happen. Turkey has made movements against Russia and (seemingly) to defend against Italy. Russia has four potentially hostile neighbors and is highly unlikely to team up with Turkey right now. Meanwhile, Italy has made movements consistent with the normal Italian start, which leads toward a Lepanto. Thus, I don’t feel a need to focus on defense and will primarily consider offensive movements. Besides, the best defense is a good offense, right? However, I will consider the possible need for defensive movements this fall.

Turkey

I believe I have an opportunity to influence Russia and Turkey to prevent a Juggernaut from forming. If I use Serbia to support Bulgaria to Rumania, that will indicate a desire to help Turkey. Even if I move to Aegean Sea, Turkey may not believe I’m against him (although he is likely to defend his territories if I move there). The support order combined with an order to Aegean may throw him off enough to not know what to think of me (of course, this is assuming he notices the support order). If I don’t get to Aegean, that most likely means I blocked Turkey from moving there (Italy is likely to try for Eastern Mediterranean Sea). Blocking Turkey from Aegean is the next best thing to moving to Aegean myself.

If Turkey continues his anti-Russian movements, he will attack Rumania with Bulgaria (supported by Black Sea) and move Constantinople to Bulgaria. There is a chance he takes a more defensive approach and attacks Rumania with Black Sea (supported by Bulgaria) and supports Bulgaria with Constantinople. That set of movements would reveal that he is worried about being attacked by me (which he should be).

An aggressive movement would be to convoy Constantinople to Armenia for a fall attack. That would most likely not be expected by Russia and would be somewhat risky. After all, I do have a fleet and an army bordering Bulgaria. I wouldn’t rule this out but the fleet build doesn’t indicate a very risky player.

Russia

With the attack on Rumania by Turkey and what I consider to be a defensive (yet savvy) build in Moscow, I expect Russia to use Sevastopol to support Rumania and Rumania to support Warsaw to Galicia. I don’t have enough information to make a prediction about Moscow or the northern fleet so I’ll simply watch. A northern defensive/savvy move would be to bounce them in StP (keeping England out yet leaving open the opportunity to influence Sweden). A southern focus would be to move to Ukraine. There are other options, but not much reason to believe anything yet.

Italy

While I want to focus offensively, I don’t want to completely leave my back door open. If I order Vienna to Galicia without support, I’m likely to bounce Warsaw if I order Budapest to Rumania. Turkey may see my movement to Rumania but understand that (with my support order) I am offering Rumania to him. If Russia moves to Galicia from Warsaw again, I should have four of my forces around Trieste even if I move my new fleet to Albania. Thus, if Italy decides to attack me instead of Turkey (or even France) then I’ll be in a defensible position. There is also a chance Italy tries to do something unexpected and move to Aegean. I prefer to bounce Italy out of Aegean if he moves there so that Greece isn’t surrounded by green fleets. However, based on movements so far, I expect a Lepanto attempt.

Germany

Germany seems focused on defense. I would expect a supported movement into Ruhr. The fleet could go to Heligoland Bight to defend against England or to Baltic to try to take Sweden (both would be combined with Kiel moving to Denmark). Considering the Spring 1901 movement to Munich by Berlin, I could see that happening again as Munich moves to Ruhr.

One thing I didn’t consider with the army builds is the message this sends to France: “Go ahead, send your armies this way. I’ll be sure to give them a warm welcome!” I believe he’ll set up a western wall of armies and gamble that France will focus elsewhere, taking the risk that not building a fleet won’t harm his ability to defend against England.

France

I have no idea where France is going. The fleet in Brest didn’t exactly reward England for the support into Belgium. I don’t believe he’ll sit back based on his risk-taking, aggressive movements. I expect an army to end up in Burgundy and maybe one in Picardy as well (to show England that it’s not a good idea to make an attempt on French lands). England and Italy surely have opposing hopes for France’s plans!

A set of movements to continue to provide flexibility would be Mar-Bur, Bel s Mar-Bur, Par-Pic, Spa-Gas, and Bre-MAO with support from Por. Taking a shot at Ruhr wouldn’t be surprising (I don’t expect it as France has made supported movements so far). I believe Portugal is more likely to move to the Spa/sc because that would be better for attacking the Mediterranean. Plus, showing that would be better to disguise a pre-planned move to the north in the fall.

England

It’s not possible for me to have a good idea of England’s mindset right now. The fleet build in Brest appears threatening. Would England consider convoying to Belgium or to Picardy/Brest? Or, is this simply a build to make Russia think the new army is going south when it’s really going to Norway (while Norway goes to Finland)? The spring movement to the Channel last year did reveal a plan to support France into Belgium. This build may have been similar in terms of misdirection.

Austria

After thinking through all of the other powers, I’m set on moving Tri-Alb, Vie-Gal, Bud-Rum, Ser s Bul-Rum, & Gre-Aeg. I’m going to try to keep Turkey focused on Russia while getting in position to attack Turkey. I’ll also hedge my bets on Italy.

Spring 1902 Movements

That didn’t go the way I wanted! Italy’s movement was a good guess for avoiding Turkey’s movement to Eastern Mediterranean but it stopped me from getting to Aegean. At this point, observations of the players can start to dive a little deeper. Let’s dig into this:

Turkey: Anti-Russian and Aware

My inexperience really shows here with my prediction that Turkey would attack Rumania with Bulgaria – the attack came from Black Sea and makes a lot more sense than what I thought. Constantinople supported Bulgaria as a precaution against me, which also made more sense than what I considered. This was also a failing in my goal to consider everything from the other players’ point of view instead of my own.

This Turkish player is aware of what Italy is doing and possibly aware of what I am doing. I hope this doesn’t change the anti-Russian stance! If Turkey saw the support I offered, there’s a good chance that Turkey orders everything the same and also orders Eme-Ion. On the flip side, Turkey could realize what I was trying to do (encourage a movement away from Bulgaria while I moved into Aegean) and could now make an overture towards Italy of Eme s Ion-Aeg.

In gunboat, I don’t believe that Turkey and Austria can truly work together long-term. If I actually help Turkey take Bulgaria, I will be solidifying Turkey’s position and setting up the potential for a second fleet build. This would lead to a Turkish fleet in Aegean and a steady assault against me. I will need to make movements that (hopefully) won’t appear anti-Turkey at first but will ultimately reveal my intent.

Russia: Alone? Checking out?

Russia mis-ordered the support for Warsaw moving to Galicia (it wouldn’t have mattered anyway since the support was cut). Could be a simple mistake or it could be the beginnings of this player checking out of the game, knowing that no other power is coming to aid the Russian forces. The German movements against Russia will certainly impact this player’s mindset.

Italy: Detail-oriented and Intentional

Italy continues to issue hold orders for Venice. I covered the possible intentions of the Ionian fleet move above. I believe I need to make some sort of overture to Italy to show my intentions. Italy didn’t make a defensive movement against my fleet build but Italy also didn’t move according to a typical Lepanto. I believe the Italian player is paying close attention, so I want to show my hand and hope that Turkey doesn’t notice it and think too much of it.

Germany: Anti-France and Anti-Russia

The German player has seemingly opened up an eastern front in addition to the western clash with France! I think this is another example of me not taking enough time to consider the German players’ point of view. With the lack of another English fleet, England is not an immediate threat to Germany so Germany could move against Russia. There’s an outside chance that the army in Silesia will head south towards me but it doesn’t seem likely with Germany once again bouncing Russia out of Sweden.

France: Aggressive and Offensive-minded

One thing that I think can be illuminating is how a player moves to counter what they believe others will/might do. France’s order of Bre-Eng was not likely to work as England was not likely to move out of the Channel. What it might have done is cut support for a convoy to Belgium (although even that wouldn’t have been guaranteed). France utilized support from Belgium to move into Burgundy so that Paris could move to Picardy. These movements seem focused on shoring up northern defenses against a potential English convoy. From my point of view, this implies that France believed England was thinking of going on the offensive against France.^[1]Of course, this opinion may be the product of how I view things!.

Regardless, England’s army build in London definitely seems to have impacted France’s movements. This should be the defining phase for France: do those fleets go north or south? I think they go north. Without much opportunity to attack Germany, I believe France will not make a pointless attack against Germany and will set up to attack England. This would entail supports for Belgium and Burgundy along with MAO-NAO and Bre-MAO (which would be consistent with risking Brest in Fall 1901).

England: Sly and Focused on Scandinavia

England’s build was proven by the spring movements to be another example of misdirection by England. The fleet in the English Channel issued a “hold” order and the move of Norway to Finland leaves open an attack on St. Petersburg or Sweden. England surely noticed the French movement to the English Channel and is faced with a choice: make a movement against France, or make a neutral order?

This player may be understanding and let it slide. However, France built a fleet while Germany built none. Most people would see that, combined with France’s move to the Channel, and take offense and/or believe that France is not friendly (and is ungrateful after the support into Belgium). Since Sweden is easier to take than StP, I expect a supported attack on Sweden while English Channel either holds or moves to Brest (depending on the mindset of the English player).

Fall 1902 Plan

Enough analysis, it’s time to consider the other players’ possible movements and make a plan:

• Turkey has made conservative/typical movements in the past, so I expect Turkey to duplicate the spring orders with the fleet in Eastern Mediterranean moving to Ionian (to block Italy from getting to both Aegean and Ionian). I doubt Turkey invites Italy into Aegean as that is next to two Turkish home centers (not consistent with preventing an Italian attack).
• Russia can’t do much other than defend. I think Russia doesn’t try to move to Galicia (due to the German army in Silesia) and uses the fleets to support Rumania and StP. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an order from Warsaw to convoy the army in Silesia to Switzerland, asking for peace with Germany. It’s possible Russia will still order Warsaw to Galicia with the expectation that the army will bounce back to Warsaw and protect it from Germany.
• Italy will either turn against me (which doesn’t seem likely based on the movements so far – a move to Adriatic Sea would have been the best way to attack me) or keep up with trying to move into Aegean (or possibly support me into Aegean). If Italy is focused against Turkey, I need to encourage that.
• Germany seems likely to take a supported shot at Burgundy and to keep trying for Sweden while possibly taking a shot at Warsaw.
• France seems like an offensive-minded player to me so I think the French fleets set up to attack England next year while supporting Belgium and Burgundy.
• England will almost certainly take Sweden, possibly by covering Norway but possibly by simply assuming that Russia will not order StP-Nor. Considering that England’s opening movement assumed Russia wouldn’t open north, I think that is more likely than covering Norway with the fleet. I think England issues an order to go to Brest, realizing that Germany is no threat but that France is.
• As Austria, I will order Vie-Gal, Bud s Vie-Gal, Alb-Tri, Ser-Tri, and Gre c Ven-Swi. I want to show Italy I want to work together (most players know that a convoy order to Switzerland is an appeal for peace) but not so explicitly that Turkey definitely sees it and starts attacking me or trying to get Russia to attack me (although that could happen). This would allow Italy to move into Aegean so that could also be interpreted by the Italian player as a step of trust (although not as explicit as supporting the Italian fleet there, which I’m trying to avoid so that Turkey doesn’t immediately attack). I also want to show Italy that I am not completely leaving my backdoor open. Some players would take offense at that if they are alliance players (aka, “carebears”) who value trust. Others will simply see that I don’t fully trust them and shrug it off. Otherwise, I want to get into Galicia so I can begin a full assault against for Rumania/Bulgaria next year.

Fall 1902 Movements

Again, that didn’t at all go the way I wanted! Yet, it’s not all bad.

Turkey: Aware and Responsive

I had hoped that Turkey wasn’t paying close attention and it’s clear that Turkey is. The adjustment of Bulgaria to Rumania is in response to my supported movement and Turkey attempted to support me into Ionian. That is positive for me, yet Turkey must feel disappointed that I sent overtures to Italy. It is possible that Turkey is an optimist (after I tried to go to Aegean, the support for me against Italy was certainly a hopeful order since I had showed no signs of being against Italy to that point). Now, my best bet is to ally with Turkey and hope we can somehow make it work in gunboat (which I have a hard time believing will go well for me in the end).

Russia: Engaged and Resilient

The Russian player is more engaged than I gave credit for. The above map shows what seems to be support for Fin-Swe from StP. This is not possible—it is actually a convoy order that is allowed on this interface. It doesn’t actually impact the movements—it is a signal (like the convoy order I issued). This was a very good move by Russia and another example of how I did not sufficiently put myself into their shoes. England makes a great ally for this Russian player and I believe England will accept this offer.

The attempted movement into Galicia was slightly risky in that I may not have ordered there. Russia correctly predicted that I would order there, preventing Warsaw from falling into German hands.

Italy: Detail-oriented and Intentional

Italy attacked me and convoyed off of Tunis to be able to attack me more and defend against a counterattack. My hope for an Austria-Italy alliance is gone (for now) and I expect to have a very tough time (Italy-Russia-Turkey can easily decide to pile on Austria once it starts).

Germany: Consistent

Germany has consistently gone after Sweden, Russia, and France. This player is likely pleased to see France fully attack England in the Channel. One thing I was wrong about was the supported attack against France—it was towards Belgium and not Burgundy.

France: Aggressive

France did attack England but in a more conservative approach than I expected (not leaving Brest open to attack). I suppose France thought that England may not support English Channel to cover Norway (which I thought about as well).

England: Sly

England has played this very well and is the only power with a build this winter. The English player supported English Channel, which I didn’t think about at all (another example of my failure to view things from the point of view of the other players). It seems that the die is cast with France and I believe England will prepare to attack France.

I won’t write a section for Winter 1903 with only one build to consider, so I’ll predict it here: England builds a fleet. A fleet helps bring the fight to France while an army would only be immediately useful for defense. With the current fleets occupied by France’s fleets, a new army would be stuck on the English island. A build in Liverpool may provide obvious possibilities (NAO or IRI) but it would allow England to maintain control of the English Channel.

BOUNCED Gunboat Journal—Table of Contents
Introduction
1901 | 1902 | 1903 | 1904
1905 | 1906 | 1907
Elimination
Conclusion
End of Game Statements